On top of that, you can spot the Philadelphia defense up in the top right corner of that graph. This is a defense that can double team Terry McLaurin without getting torched by Dyami Brown or Olamide Zaccheaus. That should be enough to result in a win by seven points or more — though I do hate betting against the Commanders Cinderella story.

Kansas City's offense holds an advantage over Buffalo's defense, but Josh Allen will be tough for the Chiefs to contain.